Abstract

The FOCUSMed project aims to improve the assessment of coastal multi-hazards and associated risks in the Mediterranean Sea. By integrating regional and local components that are often overlooked in global sea-level rise assessments, the project aims to improve the accuracy of projections for Extreme Coastal Water Levels (ECWL). These projections will take into account a multivariate analysis of waves, tides, storm surges and relative sea-level rise, across different temporal and spatial scales.

To achieve this objective, it is essential to consider the underlying uncertainties, temporal variability and correlations between the various factors involved, in order to facilitate adaptive decision-making by coastal zone managers. The latter traditionally operate with a low risk tolerance and must plan for the long-term resilience of strategic coastal infrastructure. The project addresses various sources of uncertainty, including the contribution of individual components, emission scenarios, the numerical schemes of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), wave motion modelling, nearshore coastal processes, socio-economic scenarios, as well as the population and coastal assets exposed to risk.

The specific objectives of the project are as follows: 

• O1. To identify and characterise the main regional and local components of future Extreme Coastal Water Levels (ECWL) in the Mediterranean.
• O2. To obtain projections of ECWL and wave motion by integrating the contribution and uncertainty associated with global mean sea level rise (GMSLR), relative sea level changes on a regional and local scale (RSLC, Relative Sea-Level Change), locally variable tides, gravity waves (wind-generated waves and swell), wave run-up and storm surges.
• O3. Characterise future coastal hazards and risks and propose adaptation and protection strategies.